PROBABILISTIC MODELS AND METHODS OF REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF VOLATILE FINANCIAL TIME SERIES
نویسندگان
چکیده
The article considers financial and economic time series in production, banking, investment branches. Empirical research the field of economics increasingly uses data at individual or household level obtained from surveys. Some variables are difficult enough to measure that such problems arise even when estimating simple bivariate regressions; panel used ways effectively distinguish much true change while adding noise. Results analysis real information give reasons suppose most adequate mathematic models non-stationary homoscedastic heteroscedastic probabilistic with partially unknown impact factors. We propose auto regression moving average (ARMA) for integrated (ARIMA) series. These cover rather wide class random processes, which narrow sense. Correct choice model order allows getting results acceptable errors (discrepancy) using models. showed principal useless tendency non-critical enlarging equations. Moreover, gets more complicated, extrapolation, corresponding forecasting, grow very quickly. attempts a preliminary survey specification interrelationship variables. It should be recognized practical implementation above rules is not trivial. In particular, it obvious possible obtain satisfactory estimates spectrum series, but moment clear how quantitatively estimate volatility values, cooperation processes conflict conditions, etc. Only further analysis, both theoretical empirical, can provide answers these questions.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Naukoêmnì tehnologìï
سال: 2023
ISSN: ['2310-5461', '2075-0781']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.18372/2310-5461.57.17439